Back in the 1990s, the idea that the electric car would become the dominant automotive choice in society was still a fringe idea. Most electric cars had goofy-looking designs, and barely enough battery life to take you to the end of your driveway and back. How things have changed!
Now, a growing number of countries around the world are proposing that we abandon our gasoline and diesel cars and make the switch to electric. Gone are the outlandish designs, and there are the increasingly attractive and numerous offerings from automotive manufacturers around the world. Humanity now appears to be on a journey where we are moving to a fully EV society.
Global Moves to Promote EVs
The backdrop to today’s situation stems from the growing number of countries, as well as individual states in the US, that are making commitments to curtail the development of new gasoline and diesel passenger cars, instead pushing all-electric alternatives. Even hybrid cars, once lauded as a great leap forward for the environmentalist cause, are on the chopping block as even their limited emissions are deemed too much.
There are currently 23 countries and regions that are proposing a ban on the sale of new gasoline and diesel cars between 2026 and 2050. These include: Austria, Belgium, Canada, Mainland China, Costa Rica, Denmark, Egypt, France, Germany, Iceland, India, Ireland, Israel, Netherlands, Norway, Singapore, Slovenia, Spain, Sri Lanka, Sweden, Taiwan, Thailand, and the United Kingdom.
Not every plan is the same, however. The UK’s ban, for instance, will include all new gasoline and diesel car sales from 2030 and all new hybrid car sales from 2035. Belgium is bringing a ban into place in 2026, but it will only apply to new company cars. Mainland China has yet to publish a timetable. Taken as a group average, the proposed moratorium on new gasoline and diesel car sales is proposed for 2030.
In the US, there are 12 states that openly support similar action for 2035, including California, New Mexico, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Maine, Hawaii, Connecticut, New York, Oregon, North Carolina, Rhode Island, and Washington. What we can see from all of this is that the movement to push for greater EV dominance in the market is growing quickly.
Imagine that within the next 10 short years from now, old fossil fuel cars will be the rare exception on the roads. EVs will dominate your local roads in a silent, efficient and clean future.
The Hybrid Factor
A big part of the journey towards electric cars started back in the late 1990s when Toyota introduced Japan, and then the world, to the Prius, the world’s first hybrid car. Honda and others followed suit and soon an entirely new category was created. Hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), and subsequently plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), have played a pivotal role in helping people get to grips with the idea of electric cars, helping to push EVs more firmly toward the mainstream.
Before hybrids, anything electric was considered impractical, fringe science fiction stuff, and certainly not a viable replacement for gasoline. Hybrids showed that adding electric elements could not only reduce emissions, but greatly improve gas mileage. The Prius sedan gets more than 58mpg in the city and 53mpg on the highway, which blows away any gas-only competition.
The critical detail about hybrids like the Prius was that you didn’t need to plug them in, and also that you could still put gas in the tank. It brought a change to people’s driving habits and style, but without taking away too much at one time. It was the first step of the journey to show people that it could work as an idea. PHEVs do need to be plugged in, but only take a few hours to fully charge even on a slow Level 1 charger setup.
The remaining problem? The Prius still looked a bit weird for a lot of people. What’s more, these hybrid cars lacked acceleration, torque and horsepower. Put simply, they were ugly, dull and slow. The technology was starting to win people over, but it still left too much to be desired. And then, along came Elon Musk.
Enter: Tesla
In 2008, an electric car startup led by South African immigrant, industrialist and space dreamer, Elon Musk, emerged in California. That company was Tesla. This company would forever change the way we looked at electric cars, first with their stunning Tesla Roadster, of which they sold about 2,500 units between 2008 and 2012. After that came their first mass-production model, the Tesla Model S.
Now, the Tesla range includes the Model 3, Model X SUV, Model Y crossover, as well as the continuing Model S. The Model 3 in particular as the first “affordable” Tesla car has become one of the best-selling cars in the world of any type. The upcoming Model 2 promises to be even more affordable, breaking the $30,000 and perhaps coming in as cheap as $25,000.
From Tesla we learned that electric cars could be both attractive and of an extremely high performance specification. The Model S in its highest trim level has a top speed of 200 mph and can get from 0 to 60 in under 2 seconds. Even the “budget” Model 3 can get up to 162 mph and go 0-60mph in 3.1 seconds. Tesla has forever shattered that fringe image of wacky scientists building their goofy-looking electric cars in a home garage.
Musk and his company have done much to advance electric cars in the hearts and minds of the people, but Tesla is still a high-end and high-cost brand. Until their Model 2 arrives, the Tesla EV range is out of reach for the majority of people. Their contribution to the EV society is very worthy, but there is much more to do.
Challenges Ahead
Since Tesla wowed the world with their EVs, other brands have also now started stepping up to the plate. Just about every major brand out there now has at least one full battery electric vehicle (BEV) in their selection, or plug-in hybrids. Even luxury brands like Bentley have pledged to go full electric within the next 10 years.
But all of this is merely a single step in what needs to be an international journey toward building a new kind of EV-dominated society. There are a number of challenges still to be met, namely:
- The cost of EVs
- Public charging infrastructure
- Urban home and office charging solutions
- Range anxiety
The Cost of EVs
The fact is that an EV will always cost you more than an equivalent car of size or scale in a certain category, be it sedan or SUV. Let’s take a number, $32,000. In the world of gasoline cars, that can buy you a top-of-the-line Toyota Camry TRD sedan. In the world of EVs, it can buy you an entry-level Nissan Leaf EV. It’s not to say the Leaf is a bad car (because it’s not!) but you can see from this example the stark difference in prices that exists.
The cost of the battery itself has proven to be the biggest cost factor when producing EV’s. While this cost is coming down, and it is offset by the cost of gasoline over the lifetime of the car, it is still a hurdle for many people.
There are government rebates that exist to help lower the real-terms of cost of EVs for consumers, but even with a $7500 federal rebate, it only becomes great value or those cars in the $30,000-$35,000 bracket, and even then leaves many more expensive than gasoline or diesel alternatives.
Public Charging Infrastructure
Governments all over the world are scrambling to make policy and create environments in which the proliferation of public charging points becomes a faster process. According to data from Statista, as of February 2021 the US is home to 97,589 individual charging ports spread across more than 40,500 charging stations. That sounds like a lot, but new evidence shows that the US is way behind on meeting its needs.
While Tesla’s Supercharger network makes this a non-issue for many, that is not so for other brands. For widespread acceptance, a standardized generic charging infrastructure needs to grow, and grow fast. If EVs are truly going to replace their fossil fuel counterparts, we’re going to need a much larger charging infrastructure.
The National Renewable Energy Laboratory conducted a study reported by Forbes that estimates that the US will need 3.4 DC fast charging points, and 40 level 2 charging ports per 1,000 EVs on the road. IT is also estimated that the US could have as many as 35 million EVs on the road by 2030. That being the case, the country needs 50,000 DC fast charging points, and 1.2 million level 2 ports. To get there from now, there would need to be 380 EV charging points installed daily for the next 9 years. Given that the US only managed to install about 30 a day from 2010 to 2020, many remain unsure as to whether it can be attained.
Urban Home and Office Charging Solutions
Home charging stations appear on the surface to make the lack of public charging infrastructure less of a serious problem, and in some senses that is accurate. If you charge at home overnight, you rarely need access to public infrastructure.
But in an EV society, not as many people will rely on public charging as they do now on gas stations. They have options. The problem is that not every home can have its own charging station. Right now, they are only viable for suburban homes with off-street parking and access to the right kind of electricity supply. What about people living in downtown apartment buildings?
To get to a real EV society, we will need to have charging capabilities in our public parking garages, condos and apartments, office parking lots, street parking areas and more to allow more people to have at least one opportunity a day or every other day to easily and quickly charge up. We’re still a long way from this reality, with many dragging their feet on this subject.
Range Anxiety
Finally, we come to one of the biggest psychological reasons people resist EVs, and that’s range anxiety. In a typical sedan, you might get 350-400 miles from a single tank of gas, depending on how and where you drive. A lot of highway driving might reduce that, for instance. The “long-range” EVs on the market right now are getting between 300 and 400 miles maximum range, with most hitting 200-250 miles.
This is a problem for many people, especially for those who will rely on public charging stations. The fear of being stranded in the middle of nowhere with no way to charge up is a huge obstacle. The longest range cars like Tesla Model S are also among the most unaffordable. The only solution will be for EVs to keep developing their batteries to provide more range at an affordable price. If they can make it to a comfortable 350 miles as a baseline, then we might have a shot at this EV society.
EVs Will Be the New Mainstream
Yes, there are challenges to get EVs into the mainstream. We haven’t even talked about the electrical grid or battery recycling. The challenges seem insurmountable in some respects, but only a fool would bet against EVs because the most likely outcome is that they are here to stay. The market demand for EVs may be pushed more artificially than is usual for some consumer products, but the benefits of EVs like reduced traffic noise, cheaper fueling, cleaner air, reduced greenhouse gas emissions and more all point to the inevitability of people coming around to the idea sooner or later.
The primary areas of concern remain sticker price of EVs and the ability to keep the car fully charged either at home or using public charging stations. The battle for support from the OEMs has already been won. When even the titans of the industry like Nissan, Ford, GM and others are all on board, it is really something that you can believe will happen.
How many people back in 2005 would have thought that by 2021 there would be an electric Hummer from GMC? Well, that car is here. The gas-guzzler has become a zero-emissions torque-exuding off-road behemoth and it’s moves like that, too, that indicate the inevitability of EVs. When those who so railed against electrification and supported fossil fuels find themselves buying EVs, you know you’ve basically won. Therefore, we have much reason to be optimistic for the longer term.
